Recently, The COVID-19 control measures in many parts of the country are gradually relaxed, the Fed’s interest rate hike has slowed down, and a series of domestic growth stabilization policies have been implemented more vigorously, the steel market has continuously strengthened expectations, and ushered in a round of rising prices. According to the author’s understanding, at present, many steel traders have significantly improved their confidence in the market outlook, and their willingness to store in winter has also increased compared with the previous period. It can be clearly felt that steel traders no longer blindly choose to “lay flat” when facing winter storage, but wait for opportunities.
After the previous round of rise in November, the current steel price is on the high side as a whole, and the winter storage is obviously high at the current steel price.
The confidence of market participants has improved significantly. The difference between the wording of steel traders and winter storage is that they hardly mentioned the word “difficult” again, and “confidence” is often mentioned, which can clearly feel the market mentality positive changes.
At the same time, with the gradual relaxation of epidemic control measures, the operation of steel trading enterprises has also accelerated. Since December 5th, the import and export of some companies has basically returned to normal, and the shipment volume has increased significantly. The impact of the current epidemic on business operations has been significantly reduced. In addition, after the adjustment of the local epidemic prevention and control policy, except for the slow logistics of some cross-regional businesses and the impact of sporadic positive cases of new crown pneumonia on some construction sites, most of the employees have returned to work, and the business operation has accelerated to return to the right track.
In response to the steel market trend in the later period, steel traders also showed a positive attitude. After the release of prevention and control measures, the impact of the epidemic on local economic development and market operation has been significantly reduced, which is conducive to the release of downstream demand. In the future, economic activities will continue to heat up, and the demand that was suppressed in the early stage will be released faster, which is an opportunity for steel traders.
With the reduction of external environmental pressure and the improvement of market expectations, under the background of low steel production, low steel inventory pressure and strong cost support, my country’s steel market will show a slight upward trend in the short term. Taking into account changes in downstream demand, Ma Li predicts that the steel market will still have a certain downside risk in the first quarter of 2023, and the steel market will have a chance to rebound after entering the second quarter.
Post time: Dec-13-2022